McGrath's duel with Tendulkar could be decisive

For one team or the other, defeat would almost certainly mean the end of the road, because these are the two nations who have no points carried through from the first round. Weather permitting, it should invest today's match with an even greater intensity, but it is in such death-or-glory circumstances, as the cliché has it, that the tough get going.

One of the reasons given for England's disappointment last Sunday was that they were too concerned with the consequences of failure to give themselves the best chance of winning. Whether the theory is right or wrong, fear of failure is unlikely to disturb Australia, which is why, in normal circumstances, one might back them to win a crunch match even against a side as multi-talented as India's.

"Home advantage" for India in two previous World Cups proved to be anything but an advantage and even away from home, as if their England-based supporters would let them forget, the Indians are only too well aware of the expectations of a fair proportion of their population of 900 million-plus.

For Australia, too, however, the circumstances of this game are exceptional. It is a meeting on neutral ground in London before a capacity crowd of 18,500 with prestige, a lot of money and the last chance of a semi-final place at stake. If Indian supporters outnumbered England's at Edgbaston last weekend, they will surely outdo Australia's for volume, in both senses today. Again, the Australians are a weary bunch of players and at times during their month in England they have looked it. The veterans of the tour of the Caribbean have not been home for four months.

As readers of The Times know, Shane Warne has become a father for the second time while he has been away and he is one of two key bowlers - Damien Fleming is the other - who has been nursing muscle soreness around the neck and shoulders. Steve Waugh said yesterday that he was confident that they would both be fit to take their chance today against what has so far been comfortably the most prolific batting team in the tournament.

In Warne's case, any mention of the word "shoulder" rings alarm bells, in view of his relatively recent return after serious surgery, but his captain assured everyone, after the maestro had resisted any temptation to bowl in the nets yesterday, that it was just one of the niggles that all cricketers have to put up with at this level. "I think I was about 16 when I was last 100 per cent fit," Waugh said.

Ricky Ponting has a stomach upset, another of the hazards of the peripatetic life that international cricketers lead, but he, too, should take his place in an Australia side expected to be unchanged from the one that beat West Indies on Monday.

Both teams were faced with exactly the same imperative - win or else - when they played against England and the West Indies last weekend. In both cases, it was the bowlers who seized the moment, none more decisively than Glenn McGrath for Australia. His five for 14 won the game almost before it had started and, when it came to a duel with Brian Lara, he produced a ball that pitched on middle stump and removed the off bail. Today, it will be Sachin Tendulkar for whom he will try to reserve something equally special.

India will wait until they see the weather this morning, but their probable plan will be to send Tendulkar in first with Sourav Ganguly, as they did against South Africa, leaving out Ramesh and bringing back Robin Singh, the all-rounder, who took five for 31 against Sri Lanka.

Although it risks their finest batsman falling early to the world's most consistently menacing fast bowler, this would certainly be a statement of confidence on India's part and Singh for Ramesh gives them their best and most flexible combination. If, at the last moment, they fear really difficult conditions for batting (the pitch looked white and dry yesterday, but appearances can be deceptive) they could always use Nayan Mongia as an opener, as they have before.

McGrath missed Australia's last series in India, in March of last year, the only blemish on the Mark Taylor escutcheon in the later stages of his captaincy. The combined effect of McGrath's absence and Warne's increasing shoulder pain was that Tendulkar dominated as few batsmen have since Bradman. He made a double hundred against the Australians for Bombay, then made 446 runs in three Tests at an average of 111. It is hard, therefore, not to conclude that if Tendulkar gets on top of McGrath and Warne this time, India will win.

Yet Tendulkar lies only sixth in the list of leading run-scorers of the tournament after the first round. It is Rahul Dravid, with 369, and Ganguly, with 342, who lead the way, both with more than twice the number of runs scored by Australia's most successful batsman so far, Ponting. Players such as Gilchrist, Lehmann, Bevan and the Waughs are overdue a big innings. It would be a refreshing change today if bat dominates ball, but pitches at the Oval have lost some of their pace, so it will be no surprise if the bowlers once again enjoy themselves more.

June 4, 1999