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Weather could take a hand in opening match between hosts and holders at Lord's. By Christopher Martin-Jenkins, Chief cricket correspondent

Knight may fall as World Cup dawns

THE carnival of cricket is about to start today but there is a dangerously Septemberish feel about the weather at Lord's. As the players of England and Sri Lanka got their final practice sessions in ahead of the rain yesterday, they must all have been hoping that the most important cricket match here for years is not, like too many late-season one-day finals, a case of "win the toss, win the match".

After months of preparation for the seventh World Cup and some setbacks on the way, five weeks of high-profile cricket should start with a close and exciting match if the conditions are equable.

It was raining in North London last night in advance of a reasonably cheerful forecast for today of sunshine and showers, but it will be a surprise if fielding first does not prove a significant advantage. Certainly, everyone will have a clearer idea by this evening about the wisdom of the gamble taken by the organisers when they decided to start the competition three weeks earlier than they did in 1975, 1979 and 1983.

The cricket world has changed much since then and the tournament, which starts at 10.45 this morning after an opening display involving balloons, helicopters and children dressed in the colours of the 12 competing nations, is on an altogether grander scale than the inaugural eight-nation competition that was all over in a fortnight in blissful June sunshine.

Long after players had left Lord's, where they had their final net practices, for their hotels yesterday, the commercial preparations continued, with sponsors' placards being nailed on to vantage-points wherever the cameras might roam. The four global partners have pride of place, their logos screaming out at the spectators from behind the arms of the bowlers at each end. They have paid £4 million each for a potential television audience of two billion.

Good luck to them, but it is time now for the cricketers to take the stage. There is so little, on recent evidence, between Sri Lanka and England, the holders and the hosts, that a few quick wickets with the new ball in the morning could easily be decisive. This was why Mike Atherton was picked originally in England's 15 and why Nasser Hussain was still being very seriously considered last night as an alternative opener to the established but recently unsuccessful pairing of Alec Stewart and Nick Knight.

Hussain for Knight was the only possible change to the XI that swept Hampshire aside on Tuesday. If Stewart should be lucky when the potentially crucial toss is made at 9.55, and Gough, Austin and Mullally bowl as well as they did then in conditions tailored for them like Savile Row suits, even batsmen of the class of Sanath Jayasuriya and Aravinda de Silva are going to find life difficult.

By the same token, Sri Lanka's seam and swing bowlers, notably Chaminda Vaas, fastish left arm, and Pramodya Wickremasinghe, will enjoy themselves. Vaas, who missed the triangular tournament last season when England won the first match but Sri Lanka beat them in the final, took four wickets in each of the last two warm-up matches against the counties.

Sri Lanka's real strength, of course, lies in spin bowling and in brilliant batting. The speed with which they developed from an under-funded, non-Test country, beaten in all three matches when first they played in the World Cup in 1975, to the all-conquering combination that won the trophy last time without any element of fluke, is a vivid example of what natural talent can achieve if it is organised and then exposed to international competition frequently enough. Both Bangladesh and Kenya have the potential to improve in the same way.

Experience has been as important to the Sri Lankans as talent.

Eight of their 11 players today have played more than 100 internationals; three of them - Ranatunga, De Silva and Mahanama - have played more than 200. Nine of the probable XI played in the final against Australia in Lahore three years ago.

By the sharpest of contrasts, England have only one player with experience of more than 100 games (Stewart) only three others who have managed 50 (Hick, 91, Fairbrother, 70, and Gough, 60) and only five on duty today who have played in a World Cup before.

For this reason alone, England may have to play above themselves today to win. With South Africa, India, Zimbabwe and Kenya also in their group and only three teams going through to the second round, they might indeed need to beat Sri Lanka to qualify for the Super Six.

Confidence being more than ever important in a tournament of this nature, the chances of a sustained run for whichever side prevails today would be greatly improved. Neither, in fact, comes into the game with much of a recent record, Sri Lanka having lost five of the 20 games they have played since the triangular final and England seven of their last eight.

England were perhaps the team better acclimatised to Australian conditions when the two teams last came head-to-head - almost literally so during the heated match in Adelaide - but the fact is that on neutral territory England won three of the five games during the Carlton and United series.

When conditions favoured fast bowling, as they did in Perth, England were clearly the more effective side. With all their big batting guns except Hashan Tillekeratne, Sri Lanka were bowled out for 99 on that occasion.

It will be interesting, therefore, to see if Sri Lanka play to their main bowling strength today by playing two front-line spinners. Muttiah Muralitharan's influence goes without saying and there will be an extra frisson when Ranatunga calls him up today before the capacity crowd of 31,500 in remembrance, especially, of his astonishing performance in the Oval Test last year when he took all but four of England's 20 wickets.

The enthusiastic leg spinner, Upul Chandana, who is relatively inexperienced for a Sri Lankan after a mere 51 internationals, has also been named in the 12 and the final choice will be between him and the briskish swing bowler, Erik Upashantha.

Fielding will be important, too, to both sides. England have worked hard to form a more imposing cordon than they usually have in recent times in the one-saving positions either side of square on both sides of the wicket. The pity is that the final batting choice rests between Knight and Hussain, because if they played together they could create the sort of difficulties that combinations such as Rhodes and Gibbs do for South Africa.

If, instead, these two had opened - and there are plenty of non-regular openers like Hussain who will be opening the batting in this tournament for other countries - Stewart could have dropped down the order to his possible advantage and the overall combination would have looked more convincing. Stewart, however, loves a big occasion and, although he was trying to portray this as simply another game, he knows just how big it really is.

It will make all the difference if he can repel the new white ball with authority, paving the way for the quick scorers such as Hick, Thorpe, Fairbrother and Flintoff, who could well develop into an imposing foursome if they get good starts to build upon in this and the next games.

May 14, 1999

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