The points carried through to the next round by the successful side are likely to prove crucial in determining the eventual semi-finalists, whether or not the two losers also go through on net run-rate. The first challenge for England today, whether they field first again or have to make the pace in the first innings for the first time, is to take early wickets to constrain the brilliance of Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid and Azharuddin by the quality of their own front-line bowlers, Gough, Mullally and Fraser. The second is to show that their own top six batsmen, each, on his day, capable of a significant innings, can dominate an Indian attack with three bowlers of high quality in Srinath, Prasad and Kumble.

The prospect is mouth-watering and all those with tickets for today can only hope that threatened thunder-storms in the area do not prove to be pitch-watering. Steve Rouse, Edgbaston's steadfast head groundsman, cannot remember a winter and spring as wet as the one they have had in Birmingham and the mowers have been in ceaseless use. The pitch, one of the relaid surfaces next door to the recent Test strip, is hard on top, but Rouse says that below it is still unavoidably soft and there is almost certain, therefore, to be movement off the seam for the bowlers on both sides. The more it moves, perhaps, the greater England's chances.

Edgbaston holds happy memories for many of the home side. Mullally made a successful Test debut here against India three years ago (so did Fraser against Australia in 1989), Gough shared in the demolition of Australia in 1997, Hussain and Thorpe dominated McGrath and company as they never have since in the same game and Stewart has made his highest Test score here. They will all need to be at their best today if the moment is to be seized, but so, too, will Hick, who owes England a big performance in a match that really matters.

It is the captain who most urgently needs to lift his batting on the most recent form, but from the way that he responded yesterday to a question about whether Nick Knight might return on his home ground by talking about Hussain, he has given scant consideration to dropping down the order himself. Croft for Hollioake is the only possible change to what will probably be the same XI as the one that disposed so efficiently of Zimbabwe. It is Hollioake's greater batting potential that will probably keep him in the side, but, ironically, he has not yet got to the crease.

Stewart is looking for vocal support to inspire England. There is expected to be a capacity crowd - there have been inexplicable gaps in some matches, which have officially been completely sold out - and, on recent evidence, Edgbaston crowds are seriously noisy. On the field, however, only assertive batting and bowling of impeccable discipline will bring home the two points and second place in Group A. These are well-matches sides, so much so that the issue could hang on which of the "fifth bowlers" proves the most expensive.

India's batting stars do not have special records against England. In four internationals against them, Ganguly's best score remains the 46 that he made on his first appearance at Old Trafford in 1996. The England bowlers got a good look at Dravid when he made 63 in Sharjah last month, but they will meet him in more favourable bowling conditions today and as the philosopher Alan Mullally remarked this week: "It's just a bat against a ball at the end of the day."

It should give Mullally and his colleagues further comfort to know that Tendulkar has never scored a one-day hundred against them. In 13 games, his average is a modest 30. He managed 523 runs at 87 in the last World Cup, though, a record aggregate, even though India did not reach the final, and the partnership of 237 that he shared with Dravid against Kenya after returning from his father's funeral was the second-highest in any of the seven World Cups. Dravid and Ganguly promptly upstaged that with their 318 against Sri Lanka. Nayan Mongia was unfit for that game with a damaged hand, but he returns today to add not just his skill as a wicketkeeper but his considerable resourcefulness as a batsman.

If England win today, they will have an excellent chance of reaching the semi-finals, with power to add. If India prevail, the meeting with Pakistan, at a time of military tension between the two, will be unavoidable. That will test not only security, but also the civilising potential of sport.

May 29, 1999